Highlights of the 2024-2026 edition of the PETRONAS Activity Outlook

Malaysia’s national oil company, Petroliam Nasional Berhad (“PETRONAS”) published the PETRONAS Activity Outlook 2024 – 2026 report (“Outlook Report”) in December 2023 as part of PETRONAS’s ongoing effort to increase engagement with the Oil and Gas, Services and Equipment (“OGSE”) sector.
 
The Outlook Report highlights the key focus of energy sectors in the areas of Energy Security, Energy Efficiency and Energy Transition, in upstream business, downstream business and gas business with challenges and opportunities in each of these areas being discussed.
 
The Outlook Report has also addressed PETRONAS’s initiatives in upholding the Government’s commitment under the National Energy Transition Roadmap (“NETR”) and the ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2022.
 
Upstream Business
 
The Outlook Report highlights PETRONAS’s view that the upstream oil and gas industry in Malaysia remains resilient in the wake of a healthy rebound following COVID-19 pandemic as illustrated by the success of the bid rounds conducted by Malaysian Petroleum Management (“MPM”), with close to 80% of Malaysia’s acreage having been awarded in the form of production sharing contracts. A production target has been set to produce two million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) by 2025 and beyond which will see Malaysia overtake Indonesia as the largest producer in the region. The drivers in achieving this target will be the successful implementation of key projects such as Kasawari, Jerun, Rosmari-Marjoram and Lang Lebah in Sarawak, Gumusut-Kakap Redev and Belud Clusters in Sabah, and Bekok-Oil Redev, Tabu Redev and Seligi Redev in Peninsular Malaysia, amongst others.
 
In the coming three years, more than 25 wells are forecasted to be drilled each year with a focus on shallow water plays within Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak, and deepwater wells in Sabah. During the same period, more than 45 upstream development projects are expected to be executed: four Central Processing Platforms (“CPP”) to be fabricated, three onshore facilities are to be constructed and approximately 1,130 km of pipelines are to be installed. To sustain production volume and operationality of the producing assets, about 300 Facilities Improvement Plans (FIPs) have been planned to be carried out annually for the next three years, including rejuvenation projects, gas turbine and gas generator charge-out activities etc., which contribute to curb flaring activities. Another significant aspect of upstream operations is the decommissioning activities for matured assets – for the next three years, decommissioning and abandonment plans of about 130 wells and facilities have been forecasted.
 
The continued growth of Malaysia’s upstream sector hinges on the combined efforts of the Petroleum Arrangement Contractors, OGSE and business partners, and that PETRONAS via MPM is open to fostering more extensive partnerships with all players in upstream operations to achieve a secure, resilient, cost effective and lower-carbon future.
 
Downstream Business
 
PETRONAS’s downstream business traditionally is anchored on refining, marketing and trading crude oil and petroleum products, along with manufacturing petrochemicals and specialty chemicals. As part of the effort to expand downstream business into cleaner energy initiatives, PETRONAS is venturing into biofuels, circular economy, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) bunkering and next-gen fluids with PETRONAS Iona Range and the installation of electric vehicle (EV) charging facilities at PETRONAS stations. In strengthening EV charging facilities portfolio, PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad has introduced two battery swap stations for electric two-wheelers and seeks actively for strategic collaboration with industry players to grow the EV charging business.
 
Another focus areas of PETRONAS’s downstream business are fuel innovation and biofuel production through greenfield biorefinery and co-processing at existing facilities. With used cooking oil (UCO) as main feedstock, PETRONAS targets to demonstrate capability to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO) and renewable diesel – such initiatives are aligned with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme set by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to reduce the impact of carbon footprint in the international aviation sector.
 
Energy Transition
 
The Malaysian Government sees significant opportunities in energy transition as a whole-of-nation approach that is result-oriented. As Malaysia’s oil and gas custodian, PETRONAS has continuously demonstrated support to decarbonise economic development, and such commitments are prescribed in the PETRONAS NZCE 2050 Pathway. In addressing emission reduction, the Net  Zero Carbon Emission 2050 Pathway prescribes four main levers: Zero Routine Flaring and Venting, Energy Efficiency, Electrification and Carbon Capture And Storage (CCS).
                                   
In supporting Net  Zero Carbon Emission 2050 Pathway and the NETR, PETRONAS has set the following targets: 
  1. Capping operation emissions in Malaysia at 49.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2024.
  2. Reduction of 25% of absolute carbon emissions groupwide by 2030.
  3. Achieving a 50% reduction in methane emissions from groupwide natural gas value chain by 2050 (which supports Malaysia’s ambition to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030). 
Activities Outlook in a Nutshell
 
The Outlook Report summaries the activities outlook in the following core categories, which serve as lead indicators to other supporting services: 
  1. Subsurface
  2. Engineering, Construction and Projects
  3. General Facilities Maintenance
  4. Logistics
  5. Chemicals 
PETRONAS expects a steady outlook for the next three years covering drilling rigs, fixed structures (wellhead platform application and CPP applications), installation and projects. A significant increase is expected for plug and abandon (P&A) activities in 2024 to honour commitment made by the regulator, and for plant turnaround (i.e. the periodic shutdown of a process plant or unit to carry out work) mainly to cater for requirements in Pengerang and Sarawak.
 
Whilst a relatively robust and promising three-year outlook has been posted in the Outlook Report, the ever-changing market dynamics and operational demand continue to dictate the industry needs in the OGSE sector. With the long-term price outlook points to a moderation from the current elevated prices as an acceleration in energy transition means a shift away from fossil fuel, a conservative price outlook should translate into more robust strategies for the oil & gas sector in facing the evolving energy landscape.
 
Article by Fariz Abdul Aziz (Partner) and Tan Wei Xian (Partner) of the Oil & Gas and Energy Practice of Skrine.
 
 

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